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Potential Shifts in US Military Strategy in Europe

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European nations bordering Russia must prepare for possible adjustments in US military presence in the region while simultaneously enhancing their own military capabilities.

This was stated by Estonian President Alar Karis in an interview with POLITICO.

According to Karis, during a two-hour conversation with US President Donald Trump at the funeral of Pope Francis, he emphasized the significance of maintaining troops in Eastern Europe.

"I explained everything in detail. The presence of American troops in Estonia and across Europe is crucial, and it matters for both Europe and the United States," Karis stated.

Countries like Estonia, he mentioned, "must be ready for any scenario," as the risk of troop withdrawal by the largest NATO member "means we need to build up our own capabilities." Although Karis felt reassured by some of Trump's statements, particularly his commitment this week to keep American forces in Poland, the Estonian leader stressed that it is still "very hard to predict" what Washington will do in the Baltics.

Currently, the US has approximately 2000 soldiers stationed in the Baltic states as part of a military buildup following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Pentagon is reviewing its global military posture and is expected to release its findings by the end of this month.

Karis also warned that European countries "should not be naive" regarding the Kremlin's intentions to continue testing Western democracies in the coming months, such as interfering in the Czech parliamentary elections scheduled for October 3-4.

Commenting on the Kremlin's statements that Moscow will not accept any foreign troops in Ukraine as part of a potential ceasefire, Karis said that Moscow should not have a say in this matter: "Russia initiated this aggression... The answer is a clear 'no'.

When asked if he expects Trump to increase pressure on Putin, Karis replied that "much depends on Trump's mood." "At this moment, Estonia and many European countries support Trump's actions. He has discussed this with Putin many times, but nothing changes... I think he is already losing patience," Karis noted.

Karis arrived in Brussels just days after a Russian missile strike damaged the EU delegation building in Kyiv, an event he considers not coincidental. "The only mistake Putin made was starting the war," he stated.

Karis also expressed hope that Kyiv could begin official negotiations for EU membership before the end of Denmark's rotating presidency, which concludes on December 31. When asked how the bloc can overcome Hungary's resistance to Ukraine's membership, he responded: "We need to work with this country... Perhaps we should communicate more with (Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban - ed.), rather than just label him, to find a solution. Or - Hungary leaves the room, and we make the decisions."

The US intends to gradually phase out security assistance programs for European countries bordering Russia, shifting the burden of these costs to Europe.