Researchers have found that Earth's orbital motion plays a crucial role in the occurrence of ice ages.
Their projections indicate that widespread freezing temperatures could envelop the planet no sooner than in 10,000 years; however, human activities may prevent this entirely.
This research was published in the journal Science, as reported by IFLScience.
Scientists analyzed changes in Earth's orbital motion alongside global temperature fluctuations. They discovered that minor changes in Earth's position in space, such as orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession, could be key factors in the onset of ice ages.
The researchers explained that the tilt of the planet relative to its orbit causes seasonal changes over a period of 41,000 years, affecting the amount of solar energy received by higher latitudes in summer.
Conversely, precession alters the peak of summer intensity at mid and high latitudes over a 21,000-year cycle.
The authors of the study believe that both parameters and their interaction are significant; however, precession has a greater influence on the onset of ice ages. The tilt of the planet is more relevant for the peak of interglacial periods.
By comparing changes in orbital parameters with ice ages, scientists established that eccentricity varies within cycles lasting 100,000 years.
"Over the past millions of years, we have identified a predictable pattern of Earth's climate changes between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods, such as today", stated co-author Lorraine Lisiecki, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara (USA).
The researcher added that she and her colleagues were "amazed" to discover such clear trends in how orbital parameters influence climate changes.
"It's quite hard to believe that this pattern hasn't been observed before. This is important because it confirms that natural climate changes we observe on Earth are largely predictable, rather than random or chaotic", confessed the scientist.
Scientists calculated that the next ice age should occur in about 10,000 years; however, human impact through carbon dioxide emissions has significantly altered natural climate changes.
"Such a transition to an ice age in 10,000 years is highly unlikely", believes co-author Gregor Norr from the Alfred Wegener Institute.
Earlier, we discussed the Little Ice Age, which lasted from the early 14th century to the mid-19th century, and its impact on life in Europe.