The Ukrainian government has approved key macroeconomic indicators for the economic and social development of the country for the period up to 2028, outlining two potential scenarios.

This information is stated in the resolution No. 946 dated August 6, 2025.

According to the first scenario, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) will be 4.5% in 2026, with inflation expected at 8.6%. The second scenario predicts GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation at 9.9%.

The more optimistic scenario anticipates a GDP growth of 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, with inflation decreasing to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

In the less optimistic scenario, GDP will increase by 4.7% in 2027 and by 4.5% in 2028, while inflation will drop to 9.7% and 7.5%.

According to the first scenario, there will be 13 million people engaged in economic activities aged 15 to 70 in 2026, with an increase to 13.2 million over the next two years; the second scenario estimates these figures to be 0.2 million lower.

The first scenario suggests that the unemployment rate will rise from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, before declining to 12.8% in 2028, while the second scenario indicates a gradual increase in unemployment from 12.6% to 13.1% over two years.

The nominal average salary, adjusted for inflation, is projected to grow by 6.5-8.9% annually under the first scenario and by 4.6-5.1% under the second.

The resolution does not specify which of the scenarios will serve as the basis for preparing the state budget draft for 2026.