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Forecast for Agricultural Production in Ukraine for 2025/26

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In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to produce 83 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is 5.5% more than the previous year, when 78.7 million tons were harvested.

This forecast was made by Mykola Gorbachov, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

"We anticipate an increase in production by 5 million tons. We expect 83 million tons of grains and oilseeds. The increase will primarily come from corn, which looks very promising," he stated at the Grain Club meeting in Kyiv.

The UGA president shared insights from visits to various regions, allowing him to conclude that there are no risks to the development of grain and oilseed crops.

However, he noted that due to insufficient overall vegetative temperatures, the harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2025/26 marketing year may be delayed. Specifically, the corn harvesting campaign will begin not in August, but in late September - early October.

Nonetheless, Gorbachov praised the yield potential of agricultural crops for the 2025/26 season, stating, "If nothing catastrophic happens with the weather, we can expect a very good harvest."

According to estimates, Ukraine will produce 29.26 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year, with exports rising to 24 million tons compared to 21.5 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year. Given favorable weather conditions, the UGA is prepared to revise this figure and raise the gross harvest estimate to 30 million tons.

For wheat, the UGA expects a yield of 22.5 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, with exports of 16.5 million tons.

The barley harvest is estimated at around 4.9 million tons, with exports at 2.3 million tons, matching last year's figures.

According to Gorbachov, winter rapeseed in Ukraine did not fare well over the winter. The areas that were freed up were mostly planted with sunflower and corn, leading to an increase in the gross production of these crops. Thus, rapeseed production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to be around 3 million tons, with exports of 2.6 million tons.

The sunflower harvest is projected at nearly 15 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year (up from 12.7 million tons in the previous season), with exports of 14.8 million tons.

Soybean production in the 2025/26 marketing year is anticipated to be 6.23 million tons, with exports of 4 million tons.